Pennsylvania

[next_migration]

The population of the broader Philadelphia metro area in southeastern Pennsylvania is over 6 million people, close to half of the state’s population, and that of the Pittsburgh metro area in the west is well over 2 million. Though not on the coast (being up the Delaware River a ways from Delaware Bay), Philadelphia is as much part of the east coast megalopolis as New Jersey to the east, and as such, is likely to be unsustainable. Kurtz et al. (2020) estimate that most urban parts of Pennsylvania would require moderately large foodsheds, over 250 or even 500 km radius, to be supplied even if they adopted a low-meat diet. These include not only the big metros but pretty much the whole eastern end of the state (Allentown, Wilkes-Barre, Scranton), as well as Erie in the northwest, and the central counties including the really quite small communities of State College and Williamsport.

Kurtz et al.’s analyses might be pessimistic because they do rely on current land use and production figures, and agricultural productivity in Pennsylvania has certainly not been maximized. The Center for Rural Pennsylvania reported in 2014 that between 2007 and 2012, most counties had decreases, sometimes of 20% or more, in the number of farms and acres farmed. In an era of temporarily high farm productivity and low commodity prices, many farmers who could have produced valuable food get forced out of the business for economic reasons—another sad failure of the great god Market. If importation of food became difficult, though some of the farmland that’s been lost will have gone under pavement or been ruined by fracking, many of those farms could be restored. I therefore do think that residence in the smaller metro areas of this state is a reasonable choice.

 

Contrarily, it should be noted that most of Pennsylvania lies in a major fossil fuel extraction province, with drinking water in some places already poisoned by fracking chemicals, and the fossil fuel industry may well gain political power as production declines. Some rural areas are therefore unsustainable environments for healthy human life. There is also a distinctive regional culture, accent, and language that make outsiders rather obvious, so that many small towns might not be a great destination for people from California, say.

Migration within Pennsylvania, as people depart the Philadelphia metro area for literally greener pastures, is certainly to be encouraged. Like several key swing states, Pennsylvania has been gerrymandered to reduce the legislative representation of urban and non-white communities, and after the 2020 election, some GOP politicians suggested discarding all ballots from the most African-American counties to throw the election to Trump. Outside the metro areas, the large majority of the state is mostly Republican. I argue again that this should not keep urbanites from moving to smaller communities. When everyone of your race, party, or educational background is packed into one place, people from other groups more easily demonize you, and it becomes feasible for them to scheme to discard your ballots even after you manage to cast them, which cannot be done if you are living in the same precinct. So do not worry so much about who your state legislator will be when you move, only about whether you can survive and thrive at your destination.

If we avoid the two mega-urban conglomerations mentioned above, modest-sized cities with potential include:

 

o  Harrisburg, on the Susquehanna River in southeast-central Pennsylvania, has about 50,000 people. It is the largest city in the Harrisburg-Carlisle metro area, which has over half a million people spread over three counties in hundreds of small segregate municipalities. (One of the satellite communities is Hershey, well-known for its chocolate company.) Harrisburg is the state capital, and state government is the largest regional employer, with the federal government and military second. Services, healthcare, insurance, biotech, entertainment, distribution, education, and manufacturing are all components of a well-diversified regional economy. The town has had serious financial problems but seems to be bouncing back. Harrisburg is home to the Pennsylvania Farm Show, the Great American Outdoor Show, Motorama, and many other events; cultural activities are plentiful. There is an Amtrak stop.

o  Erie, on the northwestern border, has a population of about 95,000 in a county of about 250,000. The population of the city and county have been declining. Unemployment is always above the state average. Though poverty is high and wages often low, crime is little above the national average, and houses are affordable. There are still some jobs in manufacturing (notably, plastics), as well as technology, health care, tourism, insurance, and the usual service industries. The region is a major wine producer. Location on Lake Erie, mostly well above sea level but with an active port and waterfront formerly used for shipbuilding, should position Erie well for the long-term future—especially if a Northeastern segregate nation had to rely upon Great Lakes shipping and transit to connect portions of its territory. There is cultural diversity thanks to refugee communities; religious diversity includes an Old Ritualist Russian Orthodox church. There are several institutions of higher education, but no community college, though they may be trying to rectify that. Lake-effect snowfall in the climate change era averages 100 inches per year; you’ll want good snow boots. There’s an Amtrak stop, and bus service to major cities in surrounding states.

o  Scranton, in northeastern Pennsylvania, has 76,000 people in an overall metro region of over half a million. It’s known as a hardscrabble former coal town, like several others in the region, underlaid with abandoned mines. Revitalization efforts have sought to attract tourists and prettied up the downtown, but it’s still financially strapped and blue-collar; party affiliation is now about 50/50. Current industries include manufacturing and health care. Local colleges include a community college branch campus. There is currently no passenger train service, but efforts to restore it are underway.

o  Wilkes-Barre, near Scranton, has 44,000 people. Like Scranton, it’s blue-collar (both economically and politically) and has had problems with unemployment, especially during the pandemic, low wages, and poverty. Housing, though, is cheap. Local industries include health care, banking, and insurance. It’s located on the Susquehanna River, which in the past has inflicted catastrophic flooding after tropical storms. So far levees have protected the town from repeats, though it seems partially by forcing the water into smaller communities that get wiped out instead; be careful where you live in this metro area. There’s a nice riverfront park system and a community college.

o  Altoona is a city of 44,000 in southern Pennsylvania somewhat west of center. Historically a railroad town, its economy now depends more upon health care, corporate headquarters, and retail and service. There is a small Penn State University campus and a technical school. Outdoor recreation, trainwatching at Horseshoe Curve, and visiting the multiple local amusement parks are among the activities that attract tourists. Has an Amtrak stop.

o  Lancaster is a historic city of 58,000 with a broader metro area of half a million. It is farther southeast than Harrisburg, creeping closer to Philadelphia than many might want to be. Health care, tourism, manufacturing, and retail are important to the economy, which still faces challenges; poverty is high. The city has a community college and several small colleges, mostly religious; in addition to the typical cultural institutions, there is a long-running Bible musical theater. Lancaster has a substantial Hispanic population, mostly of Puerto Rican descent, and holds an annual Puerto Rican festival. A large regional concentration of Amish farmers attracts tourists and antiquers and supplies agricultural products to local farmers’ markets. Those include the nation’s oldest continuously operating farmers’ market (since 1730; now operating three days a week). Be advised that Lancaster was an early adopter of widespread public surveillance. There’s an Amtrak stop.

o  York (44,000 people) is south of Harrisburg, to which it has a commuter bus route. The town has Revolutionary War-era historic significance; it has four historic districts and many lovely buildings from the 1700s and 1800s. The region has a fairly good range of manufacturing and food processing industries, and a few small colleges and business schools. Retail and government services are other major employments. The York Fair is the oldest state fair in the U.S., dating to 1765.

o  State College (about 42,000 full-time residents) in central Pennsylvania is nominal home to Pennsylvania State University (over 40,000 students), though not all the campus is within its borders. Penn State is a major research university, known as a “public Ivy” for its superior quality. The university dominates the town’s character and is by far its largest employer. The town is densely populated and has many dreary high-rise buildings. Median rent is well above average, and home prices, though not NYC-stratospheric, are high enough that a tenure-track salary would be needed to get a mortgage for most houses. State College is relatively walkable and is home to a philatelic research library and a large arts festival.

o  Williamsport, in north-central Pennsylvania, has less than 30,000 people but is the largest town in its metro region. It is located in a well-endowed portion of the Marcellus Shale petroleum province so there is fracking and extraction employment in the area. One might hope that the town is big/white enough that the fracking companies won’t dare to poison its water supply too severely. Local parks still have beautiful waterfalls and trails. Manufacturing (with several important companies), healthcare, education (including small colleges), and state government are other major economic sectors. Little League was founded and is still headquartered here, with the Little League World Series held in South Williamsport.

 

As elsewhere in the Rust Belt, the small cities and towns in rural Pennsylvania are often economically disadvantaged, and employment opportunities for outsiders may be limited. For small cities or towns, I would look first at those for which City-data records no significant employment in the mining and fossil fuel extraction industry. (Find these data under “Most common male industries - mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.”) Obviously, if you’re a petroleum geologist you’d be looking for places with lots of extractive employment. For other folks, I consider this because the fracking industry is powerful, and if it is a major source of well-paying local jobs, you won’t be able to complain publicly about carcinogens in your drinking water without receiving hostility or worse. However, some small towns with modest levels of extraction-industry employment are worth considering.

Most of the small towns without extraction employment are clustered in the southeast or near Pittsburgh, but some are scattered throughout the state. A few of those are effectively suburbs of moderately sized cities, such as Erie and York. The following examples seem relatively stable. To be clear, all receive some complaints about limited jobs, prejudiced residents, drugs and/or crime. The Rust Belt has not been doing well in recent decades. However, there are also happy residents who think well of the places—though Berwick perhaps the least so.

 

o  Berwick (10,000 people) is an eastern town. It has maintained manufacturing employment, including a local potato chip company; there is also retail employment, and the town is headquarters of the Penske Truck Leasing Co. There is a small community college. The downtown Christmas displays have long been a local tourist draw. Residents report that jobs are limited and drugs a growing problem.

o  Carlisle (19,000 people) is in the south near Harrisburg. There is an Apple repair facility, but other major employers (an Amazon warehouse, a call center) offer less desirable jobs. One of Penn State’s law schools is located in Carlisle. Carlisle is at a major highway juncture and is known for its numerous car shows.

o  Chambersburg in the central far south has about 21,000 people, with 52,000 in the broader area. It borders Caledonia State Park and the large Michaux State Forest. The economy includes manufacturing, retail, food processing, social services, the military, and agriculture. There are many small farms, often Amish or Mennonite, in the county. A tiny liberal arts college hosts the Cumberland Valley School of Music, and there is a vo-tech school. This is a conservative town that has problems with poverty and limited jobs.

o  Greensburg, a town of 14,000 in the southwest, is technically part of the Pittsburgh metro area but is 30 miles from the city proper and is considered the local shopping center by surrounding communities. Retail and services are primary economic sectors; outside city limits there is more manufacturing, as well as two large prisons, and a couple of corporate headquarters. Good jobs may be limited, though. There are several small college campuses in the area, and various cultural amenities. There is a regional transit system and an Amtrak stop.

o  Waynesboro at the southern border is a town of over 10,000 people near Chambersburg. It is also near Camp David and the Pentagon’s doomsday Raven Rock Mountain Complex, which won’t do the residents any good. Countywide, major sources of employment are government, health care, and retail. There is some tourism, both for Civil War historic sites and scenery. Jobs may be limited, but most residents like the place.

 

Since we won’t all be able to afford to be too picky, here are some of the more promising communities that do have extraction employment:

 

o  Ephrata is in the southeastern part of the state, northeast of Lancaster; like that small city, it’s between Harrisburg and Philadelphia, and closer to the latter than one might want. Housing costs are about equal to the national average, that is, pretty expensive. It’s a former resort town of close to 14,000 people with low crime but perhaps noticeable policing. There is a relatively good range of small businesses, though nothing that really stands out.

o  Bloomsburg (ca. 13,000 people) is in east-central Pennsylvania, north of Harrisburg. It’s a college town, and Bloomsburg University is the town’s largest employer, with other jobs in services, retail, manufacturing, health care, and state government. It’s a very pleasant and friendly town in the eyes of most residents (though non-white residents report somewhat different experiences), and boasts the largest annual agricultural fair in the state.

o  Sunbury (9000 people) is another quiet, not exactly diverse small town. It is the headquarters of the Weis grocery store chain; another local employer is Great Coasters International, which designs and manufactures wooden roller coasters. Some residents grouse about crime, but by national standards it’s really not bad. There’s a very small branch community college.

o  Hollidaysburg, South Williamsport, Lock Haven, and Bellefonte are in the central portion of the state. Hollidaysburg, at about 5600 people, doesn’t have much excitement, but residents are happy with its friendly, peaceful character, historic buildings, parks and outdoor recreation, and relative ease of travel to big cities. Local industry includes a railroad car shop and reclamation plant. Like the vast majority of small blue-collar towns, it’s heavily Red (and 98% white) and liberals should be close-mouthed.

o  South Williamsport, unsurprisingly, is next to Williamsport. As noted above, this town of 6000 hosts the annual Little League World Series and the Little League Museum. There’s some local industry, but most residents who are not in retail-type jobs probably work in Williamsport. It’s peaceful and pleasant, but almost 99% white and conservative prejudices are common. (You may as well assume that to be true of all small towns in the state unless otherwise specified.) The town is on the West Branch Susquehanna River and its levees are not in great shape.

o  Lock Haven (8000 people) is on the Susquehanna, which has a city beach, and its levees seem to be holding up. There is a little ethnic diversity (only 93% white!) and some economic diversity, with jobs in retail and services, education, health care, and manufacturing. However, jobs are still limited. The largest employer is Lock Haven University of Pennsylvania, which provides some arts and cultural events. There is a Piper aircraft museum and annual airfest. Residents are generally happy, except for those who are bored.

o  Bellefonte (6000 people) is next to State College, the main university town, and a bedroom community for many commuters to university jobs. Therefore, incomes are higher than in most small towns in the state, and housing costs significantly higher. Happily, there is a bus service linking the two communities. Government is another major employer; there are three prisons in the vicinity. Bellefonte is seen as a friendly and pleasant community, with a historic district, spring water supply, very nice park, and local distillery among the attractions.

o  Dunmore (ca. 14,000 people) is part of the Scranton metro region. Average incomes, and costs of living, are therefore a bit higher. Sadly, there is no bus service linking the two. There is local manufacturing employment at an industrial park and a chocolate company (not that one; Gertrude Hawk Chocolates), and a Penn State branch campus.

o  St. Marys (no apostrophe) in the northwest has about 12,000 people but a lot of land area. Hunting, including elk hunting, and fishing are popular. It is the home of the Straub brewery and a powder metal plant. Jobs are limited, and some complain about the police.

o  Franklin, also in the northwest, is a generally friendly and pleasant historic town of 6000. Employers include local steel and electronics manufacturers. The town is best known for the large annual Applefest craft festival.

o  Indiana (13,000 people) is southwestern, near Pittsburgh but outside the dense metro area. The largest employer is Indiana University of Pennsylvania, a state school that has had severe enrollment declines and sacked a lot of tenured faculty in 2020. As a college town it’s more liberal than most on this list, and actually 8% non-white; there may be some town-gown tension due to carousing students. Other notable economic sectors are natural gas drilling, banking and finance, insurance, and Christmas tree farming. Cost of living has remained affordable, and residents happy with its peaceful, pleasant atmosphere.

 

Pennsylvania has limited Amtrak service compared to some eastern states of similar size and population. The one line going completely through the state from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia includes Greensburg, Altoona, Harrisburg, and Lancaster among its stops, along with several smaller communities. In the northwest, Erie is the only in-state stop on a line between Chicago and Buffalo. Pennsylvania has a network of intercity bus transit and county shared-ride services. Useful information on them is difficult to access. However, Greyhound currently lists 80 stops within Pennsylvania, which in itself makes service far better than in many other states (though some of the more rural towns listed here appear to have no intercity transport).