The following text backtracks to present almost all of the last bit of my chapter on selecting a new region to live. It offers answers to a few questions that could be asked in response to my suggestion that migrants should select their destinations with an eye to the possible geographic outlines and politics of successor nations following the collapse of the United States. If you are confident that the scenario of breakup within your lifetime is ridiculous, then you may wish to ignore this topic.

However, the country is so severely divided that one of the few alternatives to a civil war leading to breakup or total loss of democracy could be the development of an extreme form of federalism, in which states are free to have secular or theocratic government, democracy or the mere pretense of it. In that scenario, while the disparate regions would continue to enjoy the wealth and power that come with being part of the U.S. imperial homeland, the legal regimes, education, social safety nets, civil rights and liberties, and so forth that their citizens would experience would be so different that they might as well be different countries. The one major difference is that people would be much freer to vote with their feet—unless their state’s laws forbade them to exit.

Therefore, three controversial questions:

 

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As for Kentucky, West Virginia seems to have more of Appalachia’s chronic problems than Tennessee and fewer opportunities. It is much more rural in character, which for some will be attractive as there is still plenty of unspoiled scenery, and dominated by evangelicals, who make up over half the population. Addiction and poverty are common, and crime rates are often quite high compared to towns of similar size elsewhere. The coal industry is politically very powerful, enabling it to harm environments and human health almost unchecked, even though employment in that industry has been declining for decades.

 

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Texas

Nov. 6th, 2022 04:01 pm

I’m out of potentially promising Northeastern states to cover so today am wrapping up the last couple of Southeastern states, namely Texas and West Virginia. In retrospect, I was probably too hard on Texas in suggesting that out-of-state migration should be avoided. There were a fairly good number of cities and towns that passed my search criteria, some large enough to absorb thousands of migrants every year without blinking. True, the governor is a nut and the regime far from democratic, but perhaps you approve of these things. True, the power grid is a disaster, but ... but maybe you can buy a generator? If you move there you had better prepare your life on the assumption that no public services, including basic utilities, can be relied upon. Still, it’s certainly possible to look at eastern Texas and see it as a better-than-the alternative destination for Christian conservatives from the soon-to-burn Southwest.

 

 

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Wisconsin

Oct. 25th, 2022 10:32 am

Day and Hall (2016) think the southeastern quadrant of this state, extending along the western shore of Lake Michigan up to Green Bay, is all unsustainable because of its urbanization. I strongly disagree, with the caveat that living in the overly large, politically targeted city of Milwaukee should be avoided. Green Bay, for example, is evaluated by Kurtz et al. (2020) as being easily fed from nearby farmland if a less meat-heavy diet were adopted. It has little over 100,000 people, with low unemployment, crime, and cost of living; it has a port on Lake Michigan’s Green Bay but is largely well above sea level, though some areas have flood risks. This is a place that could be ideally situated for sustainable urban life.

 

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The large cities in South Carolina include Charleston on the coast, Columbia in the center, and Greenville in the northwest. All three have metro areas in the 800,000 to 900,000 range. Charleston is a truly lovely city, but given its location in the high-risk flood and hurricane zone, best not added to. The foodshed mapping of Kurtz et al. (2020) suggested that Greenville might require quite a large foodshed even with a low-meat diet. Columbia is more easily provisioned but its metro area, which sprawls over six counties, is likely to be larger than you want.

South Carolina does not seem to be the most promising state for conservative migrants to consider, unless you want to move to one of the big cities, which I don’t recommend. Smaller cities frequently appear to have chronic economic issues or shockingly high crime rates that are suggestive of such issues. A few of the most promising that are located away from the coast or the metros are the following:

 

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Missouri

Oct. 23rd, 2022 08:44 pm

Missouri, in Colin Woodard’s take on American regional cultures, is Appalachian in the southern half and Midlands in the northern half. It has two large, diverse metropolitan areas, Kansas City and St. Louis, at the western and eastern edges of the state respectively. However, its government is entirely dominated by the rural areas, and in the present climate of what Will Wilkinson terms the “Southernification of rural America,” we may presume that it would join the Confederacy or Red republic if the Union broke up today, whatever the urbanites might think of that.

 

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Vermont

Oct. 23rd, 2022 08:43 pm

Vermont has a reputation for liberalism because its people are generally tolerant and value their environment. However, it’s worth remembering that they were for a long time the only state to allow permitless concealed carry firearms, which was called “Vermont carry” back before many states chose to extend the privilege to any white guy with an assault rifle. Vermont’s state motto is “Freedom and Unity” (they also have a dopey Latin motto), and the state still has much of the old New England Yankee culture, which is hard-working, self-reliant, understated, and modest. New Englanders tend to believe in helping their neighbors, if they are deserving, and otherwise keeping their noses out of other people’s business. Vermont is usually a nice state, though it’s not very diverse and African-American residents find some towns less pleasant.

 

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Mississippi is a very rural state. The largest city, in a state of about 3 million, is Jackson, the capital, which has 426,000 people in the entire metropolitan area. Kurtz et al. (2020) concluded that Mississippi is well placed for sustainability in terms of food supplies even given present diets, unlike some other Southern states whose large cities would not be easily provisioned locally. Mississippi has well-known problems—poverty, unemployment, inequality, infant mortality, poor education and health care—that are worse than in most Southern states. If those things don’t trouble you or you don’t think they’ll affect you, Mississippi might be pre-adapted for decline.

 

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The population of the broader Philadelphia metro area in southeastern Pennsylvania is over 6 million people, close to half of the state’s population, and that of the Pittsburgh metro area in the west is well over 2 million. Though not on the coast (being up the Delaware River a ways from Delaware Bay), Philadelphia is as much part of the east coast megalopolis as New Jersey to the east, and as such, is likely to be unsustainable. Kurtz et al. (2020) estimate that most urban parts of Pennsylvania would require moderately large foodsheds, over 250 or even 500 km radius, to be supplied even if they adopted a low-meat diet. These include not only the big metros but pretty much the whole eastern end of the state (Allentown, Wilkes-Barre, Scranton), as well as Erie in the northwest, and the central counties including the really quite small communities of State College and Williamsport.

Kurtz et al.’s analyses might be pessimistic because they do rely on current land use and production figures, and agricultural productivity in Pennsylvania has certainly not been maximized. The Center for Rural Pennsylvania reported in 2014 that between 2007 and 2012, most counties had decreases, sometimes of 20% or more, in the number of farms and acres farmed. In an era of temporarily high farm productivity and low commodity prices, many farmers who could have produced valuable food get forced out of the business for economic reasons—another sad failure of the great god Market. If importation of food became difficult, though some of the farmland that’s been lost will have gone under pavement or been ruined by fracking, many of those farms could be restored. I therefore do think that residence in the smaller metro areas of this state is a reasonable choice.

 

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Louisiana

Oct. 8th, 2022 10:06 am

Louisiana as a whole is more French- (and Catholic-)influenced than any other state; for example, the state is administratively divided into parishes rather than counties. As noted, southern Louisiana’s heavily French-influenced Cajun culture is unique in the United States; many residents still speak a Louisiana dialect of French as their first language. Most Cajuns are rural, attached to the land, and not wealthy enough to move readily. Sadly, sea level rise plus land subsidence due to fossil fuel extraction is chewing away at the land rural residents need to live on, and many places are heavily poisoned by the chemical industry. Parts of the largest city, New Orleans, are already below sea level; that will become increasingly difficult to manage. Already, after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, poorer neighborhoods were never fully rebuilt. An increasing number of residents will be forced out of their homes in future, and for them, communities farther north in Louisiana will often be the most congenial choice. Out-of-state Anglophones who just like gumbo should perhaps refrain from taking up space in those communities.

 

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New York

Oct. 8th, 2022 10:03 am

People conflate New York the city with New York the state. Most of the state, in Woodard’s analysis of America’s traditional cultural regions, is culturally quite distinct from the City. Historically the state was a center of manufacturing, and it has a good amount of agricultural land that produces many fruits and vegetables. In addition to the New York City metro area, other substantial urban areas include Albany/Schenectady to its north, Buffalo and Rochester to the west with their important lake access, and centrally located Syracuse. Smaller cities are located to the south. As noted elsewhere, I suggest that most migration here would best be within-state. NYC is clearly unsustainable for the future and many residents would do themselves a favor by getting out early, and staying in the state would keep them close to family, friends, and colleagues.

 

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Kentucky

Oct. 5th, 2022 06:07 pm

Kentucky is very rural, except for the metro areas of Louisville on the northwestern border (well over a million people) and the Lexington-Frankfort-Fayette area (well over half a million). There are many tiny unincorporated communities and “historically black hamlets.” Most counties are “dry” (still prohibiting alcohol sales) or “moist” (permitting sales only at certain businesses in certain cities, typically businesses owned by the rich or corporations, e.g., only restaurants with 100 seats or more). There are some local intercity bus services, but no central source of information about service. Only Maysville, South Portsmouth and Ashland in the north and the tiny Fulton in the southwest have Amtrak stops, though thruway service from several towns is available. Even Greyhound service is rather meager, with only 15 stops now listed in the state, including Berea.

 

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Minnesota

Oct. 5th, 2022 06:06 pm

Over half of Minnesota’s population, about 2.9 million people, live in the southeastern metropolitan area of Minneapolis-St. Paul. The Twin Cities, with about 700,000 people, are surrounded by sprawling suburbs, often having over 50,000 people apiece. As for many other metro areas in this region, Kurtz et al. (2020) find that a foodshed of between 500 and 1000 km radius is required to feed this area now, but that local supply would be possible with a diet lighter on meat. Still, it’s already larger than desirable for a metro area, and known for police brutality. If you insist on living in a megalopolis, this might be better than most; otherwise, look elsewhere.

 

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Georgia

Oct. 1st, 2022 04:14 pm

 

Six million of Georgia’s less than 11 million people live in the northwestern Atlanta metropolitan area. Augusta, on the eastern border, has a metro area population of 600,000. The third-largest metro area is Savannah in the southeast, 400,000 people, along the Atlantic Coast in the high-risk zone. That tells you which areas may be most unsustainable.

If conservative government is your main reason for choosing a Southern state, note that Georgia’s demographics are now such that, if everyone gets to vote, the state is now purple. The state government is trying to ensure that not everyone does get to vote, but as of this writing there’s a significant backlash to their efforts resulting in high turnout by newly empowered African-American voters, who are mostly Democrats. It’s difficult to imagine this state staying out of the Confederacy if the Union splits up, between its cultural ties and its geographic location. However, if that were really important to you, this might not be a safe bet.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of small cities that have good-looking economic numbers are located within the Atlanta metropolitan area. That area encompasses several whole counties, so some portions are more urban than others, but still, you shouldn’t want to add to that level of sprawl. Inland cities with more modest metro areas tend to have above-average unemployment rates, so migrants might not be easily employed. Rural areas, including large parts of the southern and eastern portions of the state, are generally quite poor and, unless you want to buy a farm, have few economic opportunities for outsiders. For these reasons I’d suggest that out-of-state migrants should not consider Georgia as a destination. Here are a few examples of smaller urban areas that might be of interest to current residents thinking of leaving Atlanta:

 

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Maine

Oct. 1st, 2022 04:14 pm

[Regarding Maine, note my previously expressed concern about the current population and limited agricultural productivity of this entire region. Not many people should move here.] Mainers have traditionally been a special breed. Many do very hard work in harsh environments on land or sea. The region is poor and insular, with a distinctive culture and accent (notwithstanding the recent “Southernification” of rural areas), and outsiders stick out. If you’re going to move to Maine from anyplace farther away than New Hampshire, show up wearing Carhartts and be ready to work hard without complaining for a long time to fit in. The biggest city is Portland, which at 68,000 people is hardly a teeming metropolis. I exclude ridiculously expensive suburbs of Portland from consideration, but housing is pricey in the state in general, and anyplace that’s farther south and has ocean views is substantially costlier than inland towns. The options that might seem most reasonable to the middle or working classes include the following, which are mostly well above sea level except as noted.

 

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Arkansas

Sep. 29th, 2022 07:09 pm

Arkansas is a state of about 3 million people, with over half a million each in the two metropolitan areas of Little Rock and Fayetteville. Both metro areas are reasonable enough in size and cost to be of interest to some migrants who need urban employment. Most of the state has lower population density with affordable housing and plenty of room for more people. Arkansas’ motto is “The Natural State,” and it is well placed for natural resources, with plenty of forests and farmland (Arkansas produces almost half of the nation’s rice crop), as well as a significant steel industry, a developing film industry, and, in places, tourist industry driven by the attractive scenery and varied outdoor recreations.

 

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Iowa

Sep. 29th, 2022 07:08 pm

Iowa is a state primarily devoted to agriculture. Though this has downsides, like the political dominance of agribusiness, it also means that there is plenty of local food supply potential and a hard-working, pragmatic ethos. Education is traditionally valued in Iowa. It has ranked among the best states for K-12 public education, though the GOP government is undercutting public education at the moment, and there are 42 cities or towns of over 4000 people that have at least one college. This makes it a good place to raise kids, though if you want your child to experience cultural diversity growing up, your choices of residence will be more limited. The state has many virtues and can be recommended, for those whose personalities suit the local culture, with little or no reservation. Stephen Marche believes that it would join a Red nation after a breakup of the U.S., but I am optimistic that he will be proven wrong.

Most parts of Iowa are pleasant, though if you are a member of a minority group, you’d probably want to live in one of the “big cities.” There are 13 cities of over 40,000 people in Iowa. A few have red flags, but most are in good shape economically and socially and would make excellent homes.

 

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Alabama

Sep. 21st, 2022 02:02 pm

As noted before, I’ll be presenting Southeastern states in alphabetical order as well. That means starting with Alabama, which is a bit unfortunate since I have very few potential destinations to recommend in that state. While you know that I wouldn’t personally care to end up in any Christian nationalist region, some of the Southeastern states are in much better shape than others, and Alabama has a generally weaker economy and fewer opportunities. That said, it would have room to accept some migrants. In smaller towns these might best be mostly people with local ties and/or those who have a way to make a locally suitable independent living and actually improve the economy rather than just filling an existing job-role. 

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Illinois

Sep. 21st, 2022 02:02 pm

Here I am starting to present comments on Northeastern or presumptively Northeastern states in alphabetical order. That means starting with Illinois, which, though it would not be my personal first choice, should have room for quite a few people. My assumption is that most migrants will be working-class people, or younger white-collar workers, who lack huge savings and will need to get a job or set up independent work quickly. Therefore, as previously noted, my criteria for identifying promising migration destinations in each state emphasize moderate population size (neither too giant nor too small), reasonable cost of living, and reasonable unemployment rate. If these things don’t concern you, your top few choices might be extremely different from mine and you had better do your own research!

 

 

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Here, continuing my plan laid out in the last post, I’m presenting introductory comments from my chapter on Southeastern states. I suspect that most people who would be proactive climate migrants at this stage of the game would be better off in the Northeast. However, I don’t want to be prejudiced in that regard (conservatives are also capable of observing shrinking reservoirs or smelling smoke in the air, even if they aren't willing to term these things "climate change"!), so barring special requests, I’ll alternate posts about Northern and Southern states thereafter.

 

 

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