Virginia

[next_migration]

Virginia is now a bluish-purple state in terms of its people’s preferences. Virginia has in the recent past had problems with racist gerrymandering so severe as to be limited by the U.S. Supreme Court, yet elects a good number of Democrats; as of this writing, it appears that the 2022 pro-GOP bias will be somewhat moderated. It was one of the original 13 U.S. states and is geographically adjacent to presumed Northeastern states, so if any of the former Confederate states were to look north following a breakup of the U.S., Virginia would be the most likely. That is the prediction of Stephen Marche. However, culturally it is primarily Southern and I would not bet on its future affiliations.

 

 

As for most of the northeastern coastal states, the largest cities in Virginia are on or near the coast. The largest population center is in the southeast, with major cities including Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Hampton, and others all in close proximity. A second major population center is at the northeastern corner of the state abutting Washington, D.C., with largest cities including Arlington and Alexandria. The fourth-largest city, Richmond, is in the central-east, well inland.

Kurtz et al. (2020) considered the metro areas with the most problematic food supplies to be the northeastern D.C. megalopolis and, not the large concentration around Hampton and Norfolk, but western areas, apparently including the much smaller Roanoke and Lynchburg. The montane areas to the west of those cities must have much less agricultural productivity to offer than the flat plains near the coast. However, today’s migrants who have reason to move to this state may be willing to settle for short-term sustainability.

All of the coastal cities will be threatened by hurricanes and sea-level rise, and those in the D.C. metro area might have difficulty with food supplies in future. It would be sensible for some residents of these metro areas to consider moving to points farther west. Those who are not conservative and preferably white will want to avoid the very right-wing extreme west and northwest. Probably most migration should be within-state. Out-of-state migrants might want to avoid Virginia, given both its uncertain political future and its existing population pressures. Virginia has lower overall population density than Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Illinois, but when you take into consideration the future effects of climate change on coastal cities, the lower proportion of land suitable for farming, and the outrageous rents and property values in most communities, it seems to be already pretty well populated.

Richmond seems to be in a relatively good position, for people who strongly prefer big-city living. The population is well over 200,000, and there are over a million people in the larger metro area. Government, law, banking, biotech, and corporate headquarters are major employers. The city proper is majority-minority and has a broad variety of religious communities. There is a large public university, and the metro area hosts several private, community, and technical colleges. Arts, culture, and literature are well represented. In historical architecture, which is plentiful, the city is known for its use of locally made cast iron. There is an Amtrak stop. Despite the good job market, poverty remains high, though crime has decreased over time. Housing is more expensive than in smaller places, though not Beltway-level exorbitant, so working-class people might struggle. The large suburban city of North Chesterfield is a little more affordable, though not much more.

Most intrastate migrants should be seeking smaller communities. Many smaller towns in northern Virginia have skyrocketing populations and New York-like costs of living, probably because Beltway denizens who don’t mind long commutes have run up the property values. These are best avoided. A few small to medium-sized cities with potential include the following.

 

o  Roanoke (100,000 people) is a blue island in a red sea, more diverse than many Virginia towns. It is the cheapest city in Virginia, increasing appeal for the working-class. The economy includes health care, manufacturing, distribution, government services, retail, and insurance; at last report, unemployment is low. There’s a community college. Cultural institutions include an opera, symphony, youth symphony program, and children’s theatre. The bus service is unusually good-sized for the South, though weirdly organized around a single hub, and includes a connection to the smaller neighboring city of Salem. Roanoke is located on a river, and flooding can be a problem. There is an Amtrak stop.

o  Vinton (8000 people) is just east of Roanoke. It’s relatively affordable and has small-town charm that attracts some tourists, but drugs and crime are problems. Probably most residents who want better than retail/service jobs have to commute to Roanoke.

o  Lynchburg (ca. 80,000 people) has several universities, including the infamous Liberty University, which is the city’s largest employer, and a community college. Technology, pharmaceuticals, and other manufacturing are important. There are some arts. Residents describe it as a “Christian town.” Well-paying jobs are limited and poverty is high; older neighborhoods are run-down and have high crime, but overall crime is still below average. Housing costs, at least, are reasonable. Has an Amtrak stop.

o  Charlottesville, home of the “public Ivy” University of Virginia, has about 47,000 people. It offers many jobs in government, health care, and service. There is a diverse brewing industry and many cultural events. Housing costs are quite expensive and poverty rates high; you shouldn’t move here unless you have a well-paying job waiting for you. It was the site of an infamous neo-Nazi march and residents warn that “Yankees” moving there may be treated poorly. Has an Amtrak stop.

o  Harrisonburg (52,000 people) is located to the northwest of Charlottesville towards the border. Manufacturing, food processing, brewing, distribution, education, health care, and software are major employers. Arts and culture are a valued economic sector, and there are two universities, one good-sized. There is an attractive historic downtown. There is a noticeable Hispanic minority and some broader diversity as a result of refugee resettlement. Homes are pricey compared to similar communities in some states, but affordable rents can still be found. Some residents complain about low wages and covert racism (but that seems to be an issue almost anywhere).

o  Winchester (28,000 people) is in the extreme north of the state. Several federal agencies and manufacturing corporations have offices here. Health, education, and retail also employ many residents. Winchester is far enough from D.C. to be relatively affordable, but still has above average housing costs. It’s reputed to have a close-knit small-town feel and attractive scenery.

o  Staunton (26,000 people) is near the similarly sized, less appealing Waynesboro. Major employments are in health care, education, retail, and government; well-paying jobs may be limited. Staunton is home to the Virginia School for the Deaf and the Blind; it has several urban cultural amenities, including a reproduction of Shakespeare’s original playhouse. The town is largely white, and until just a few years ago the public schools handed students over for “out of class” weekday Bible lessons. Has an Amtrak stop.

o  Farmville in central Virginia has only 8000 people. It’s home to the public Longwood University. It’s reputed to be a quiet college town with not much to do, but beautiful scenery to enjoy. Unfortunately, rent is getting expensive and wages are not increasing to go along.

o  Culpeper in the north is now over 19,000 people, its population having roughly doubled in 20 years. Industries include manufacturing, data centers, telecommunications, technology, materials, food processing, and handmade furniture. There’s a lot of history, and a market for Civil War tourism. Housing costs are a bit high and poverty is a problem. So is racism; it’s largely white and the county sheriff has engaged in virulent anti-BLM conspiracy-mongering. Has an Amtrak stop.

 

Portions of Virginia are served by Greyhound, with service outside the coastal area mostly in the central region, and the Virginia Breeze bus service, which has three routes, all serving to connect smaller communities to the D.C. metro area and/or Dulles Airport.