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next_migrationOhio is a traditionally industrial Rust Belt state that includes four major cities (Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Toledo), two cities in the 100,000 to 200,000 range (Akron and Dayton), and quite a few smaller cities. Most of the largest cities are situated within much larger, politically fragmented metropolitan areas. The metropolitan areas of Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati each hold over two million people, and those of Toledo, Youngstown, Akron (south of Cleveland), and Dayton (north of Cincinnati) hold several hundred thousand apiece.
The foodshed analyses of Julie Kurtz et al. (2020) estimate that most of Ohio’s urban areas could be provisioned within a reasonably sized foodshed if (as usual) a lower-meat diet were to be adopted. Cost of living in Ohio is generally moderate even in the big cities, thanks to the state’s blue-collar character. Still, all of these metro areas are larger than will be desirable in a resource-limited future, and new migrants should avoid the biggest ones unless they have special reason to move there. Redistribution of some of the existing populations of those metros to smaller cities and towns might also be beneficial to the people involved. There are many other communities that would provide better quality of life, as well as better governance, as we will see.
To begin with Ohio, which is one of the states that I would have left till the end and handled with tongs if left alone, I need to explain ultra-briefly my view of the political situation. I think it is quite possible that the Union will break up, after or instead of suffering a round of fascism, with successor nations hopefully having very different models of government. It appears clear to me that most of the Southeast would prefer a more theocratic government (I didn’t use the phrase “Christian nationalism” in the book, but that’s effectively what I mean), while most of the Northeast would prefer secular democracy and has a cultural history that supports that, although, crucially, several large states’ governments don’t currently represent the preferences of their citizenry very well.
I suggest that if people migrate to states in the region whose predicted form of government agrees with their own personal inclinations, they maximize the chance that both they and at least some others will actually get to live under that form of government in future. There are a few states, however, whose fate I would hesitate to predict for various reasons, primarily a clash between their historical cultural affiliations and their current politics. Ohio may be one of those, which means I am hesitant to recommend it to out-of-state migrants of either faction. (So if you choose to move here and don’t like what you get, don’t say I didn’t warn you.) However, because otherwise the state has many advantages, and could be a real powerhouse again if it got out of the economic doldrums, it can’t be ignored.
Ohio has had strongly religious-conservative government of late, making it unclear whether, if the Union broke up, the state would join with the Northeast (its historical affiliation) or the Confederate states. Ohio is majority-Republican but is also heavily gerrymandered to permit extreme conservative rule. Ohio’s citizens passed a constitutional amendment calling for less biased redistricting beginning in 2022. However, it was simply ignored by the Republican legislature, which is now proceeding into the 2022 elections with Congressional and legislative districts that the Ohio Supreme Court repeatedly ruled to be unconstitutional.
This is distressing to believers in democracy, of course, but on the plus side, it suggests to me that much or most of the population would probably wish to remain part of the Northeast. If Ohio’s population really did contain a supermajority of evangelical extremists, the GOP wouldn’t feel the need to work so hard to prevent so many of the people from having representation in the legislature. It is also possible that Ohio’s key geographic position, connecting Michigan and Pennsylvania, would give the state’s ruling class leverage to demand special privileges or guarantees if it joined the Northeast, such as local autonomy to impose religious laws, giving it (from some people’s perspective) the best of both worlds. I think it is a reasonable presumption that states will survive and retain their current borders for the remainder of the century, even if the Union breaks up. However, if I’m wrong, it’s possible that the state of Ohio would split up, with the culturally Appalachian south joining the Confederate states and the north the industrial Northeast. Current Ohio residents might want to consider how their choices of residence might affect the balance in this perhaps geopolitically critical swing state.
Smaller Ohio towns are usually quite conservative and ethnically homogenous; even mid-sized cities can be up to 96% white. Many have been hit badly by post-industrial decline, and lack of jobs, low wages, poverty, drugs, crime, and infrastructure decay are serious problems. Arriving without a job offer in hand or a plan to make one’s own living could be risky. I exclude from mention most very small towns, because a stranger could have little chance of finding any job, as well as towns that are reported to be particularly unfriendly or lethally manganese-polluted.
Bigger cities also have weak economies compared to urban areas in some other states, but the greater number and variety of businesses might give a hard-working migrant a better chance. I still suggest avoiding the three big C’s as just too big. Other large and diverse cities, which all have some local public transit and Greyhound bus service, include the following:
o Dayton (137,644 people) is by one definition the center of a metro area of about a million people, which is beginning to merge with the Cincinnati metro to its south. However, it’s well regarded as a place to live. It is diverse, with many faith communities. The economy includes logistics and shipping, engineering, manufacturing (including for the military), healthcare, tourism, insurance and law. Dayton has a state university with a medical school, one of the nation’s biggest and best community colleges, and a Catholic university unusually well regarded for its research expertise. The downtown features a wide range of entertainment and cultural venues and the Dayton Dragons minor league baseball team.
o Toledo (271,000 people, but with a smaller surrounding metro area) is a port city on Lake Erie. The economy is still strong in manufacturing (steel, glass, autos, solar panels, etc.); there are several corporate headquarters. Health care is an important employer; the University of Toledo has a medical school. There’s also a community college. The port is still active and will likely be more important in future. Cultural resources are as plentiful as in any large city, including a jazz orchestra, a highly-ranked zoo, library, and science museum, a wide variety of sports including women’s football and a speedway, multiple weekly newspapers, etc. There is an Amtrak stop.
o Akron (190,000 people with a metro area of about 700,000) is south of Cleveland and their metro areas are beginning to fuse. The economy includes manufacturing (especially rubber and tires, with Goodyear’s corporate headquarters located here), high-tech (especially polymers, with 400 related businesses located in the region), health care, higher education (University of Akron), and a large jewelry company. There are a variety of cultural events and tourist attractions. Local public transit has connections to Cleveland and Canton.
o Canton (71,000 people) is 20 miles south of Akron and their metro areas, too, are starting to blur together. Though manufacturing and rail shipping have declined, the economy is still strong, with usually low unemployment, and diverse, though retail and service are increasingly emphasized. There is a variety of manufacturing, including food processing, and local agribusiness, as well as health care and some insurance and finance. Canton is the home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame and the Bluecoats Drum and Bugle Corps. Cultural institutions appear to be very limited compared to most northern cities of similar size.
Probably because of its large population, Ohio has a decent public/private rural intercity bus network, GoBus, which has five routes that serve 29 Ohio cities or towns and Hocking, West Virginia. Promising smaller cities that are on these routes and well away from the sprawl include the following:
o Lancaster (40,000 people) is southeast of Columbus. It has jobs in areas including health care, manufacturing, government, food processing, education, and retail. It has a glass industry museum and historic architecture and hosts an October county fair. It is exceedingly white and reputedly quite conservative.
o Newark (nearly 50,000 people) is east of Columbus and slightly more diverse. It is the home of major Hopewell (2000-year-old Native American) earthworks with astronomical meaning. There are many manufacturing employers and a few corporate headquarters, and a regional university campus/technical college.
o Mansfield (ca. 47,000 people) is in north-central Ohio, midway between Columbus and Cincinnati. It is more diverse than most Ohio towns. Manufacturing has declined badly but is still important to the economy, as are food processing and health care. The economy is in somewhat rough shape, but cost of living is modest. There is a strong performing arts culture, and a five-day-a-week bus service. Some neighborhoods are extremely right-wing.
o Wooster (about 27,000 people) in the northeast is home to several corporate headquarters, manufacturing plants, a liberal arts college, and Ohio State University agricultural facilities. Agriculture is important in the county, with many Amish farmers. Wooster hosts the county fair, is the center of a local food network, and, thanks to the college, has some performing arts.
o New Philadelphia in the east has over 17,000 people. Manufacturing is the biggest economic sector; medical care and printing also offer jobs. It is known for a small locally owned branch university campus, which has a performing arts department, and a historic park with a wooden carousel. The town appears to be rather dull but small and safe.
o The nearby town of Dover (ca. 13,000 people) might effectively share transit access. Dover has some manufacturing employment, including a large chemical company, and a regional hospital. Parts of the surrounding area are Amish. There are several wineries.
o Cambridge in the east (10,000 people) has several manufacturing employers, but residents report that the job market is poor and wages low. It’s historically a glass-manufacturing town and sees tourism from glass collectors as well as history buffs. Reportedly mostly friendly and welcoming.
o Marysville, over 25,000 people in the center-west, is the home of Scotts Miracle-Gro and the biggest Honda Accord factory in the U.S.; other manufacturing, agriculture, and R&D are major industries. The town hosts a variety of summer and fall festivals and a county fair.
o Lima in the west (36,000 people) has a large oil refinery; other employments include manufacturing, healthcare, and government. Lima was hit hard by post-industrial decline and has not yet fully rebounded. There is public transit via a county bus system.
o Van Wert (about 11,000 people) is located at the western edge of the state. Manufacturing, meat processing, insurance, and health care are major employers. Despite its small size, the town has art and performing arts centers, a YMCA and YWCA, and the oldest county library in the U.S; it hosts a county fair. Considered to be dull, peaceful, generally friendly and pleasant.
o Logan in the south has only about 7000 people. It is home to the Columbus Washboard Company and holds an annual washboard music festival. Tourism is a major business, with beautiful local scenery.
o Jackson is a southern town of little over 6000. Manufacturing, often of wood products from local trees, and food processing are central to the county’s economy. Jobs are often scarce and low-paying nowadays, and poverty, crime, and drugs are problems. Unfortunately, there are few small towns in Ohio for which that cannot be said at present. This one might appeal to a few people because many residents are of Welsh descent and that heritage is still visible in the local culture.
GoBus is nice, but not everyone can move to places with decent public transportation. If you have a car and expect to have one for the near future, maybe you won’t care about that issue for now, anticipating that bus service will improve as the public’s ability to drive declines. Here are some promising smaller cities that lack GoBus service:
o Findlay (40,000 people) is south of Toledo, located on the Blanchard River, which tends to flood. The economy includes corporate petroleum and tire headquarters, manufacturing (tires, dishwashers), distribution for several major big-box stores, and retail. There’s a community college branch and the University of Findlay, a private college that features programs in pre-veterinary science and Western and English equestrianism. There are a variety of annual community activities. Findlay has considerable political diversity and is generally well-liked by residents. There is a reasonably priced public dial-a-ride service.
o Bowling Green and Perrysburg are part of the Toledo metro area. Bowling Green (31,000 people) is a college town, but blue-collar enough to host a tractor-pulling contest. Bowling Green State University is the largest employer; there is also diverse manufacturing (automotive and aerospace, chemicals, a fairly broad variety of specialized products including animatronics), food processing, and logistics and distribution. Local events include the well-known Black Swamp Arts Festival, a county fair, and a Winterfest. There is a rather pricey dial-a-ride service.
o Perrysburg (25,000 people), located on the Maumee River, has employment in glass and steel manufacturing. It is reportedly pleasant to live in and still relatively affordable, though housing is above the (low) state average. In warm weather there’s a weekly farmers’ market with live music in the summer (the 2022 schedule including the “Perrysburg Symphony Orchestra”!). Perrysburg has a dial-a-ride service. There seems to be not much to say about Perrysburg, but if that means there’s nothing bad to say, that’s actually a good sign for people who don’t mind a rather dull hometown.
o Defiance (17,000 people) is in the northwest corner of the state. Jobs are limited, though a variety of special districts and zones seek to increase economic activities. Countywide, the biggest economic sector is manufacturing, followed by retail and services, government, and health care; most businesses are small. The town has concluded that it has a shortage of rental housing and is trying to encourage its development, but recognizes that developers won’t supply the affordable (<$750) units for which demand would be greatest. Defiance is a pleasant town with a library, some parks, and monthly “coffee with a cop” events. Like Perrysburg, if you prefer small and boring and have a way to make your living, you might be quite happy here.
o Sandusky (25,000 people) is on Lake Erie midway between Toledo and Cleveland. Tourism, featuring the Cedar Point amusement park (known for its large, fast roller coasters), recreation on the lake and waterfront, and outdoor and indoor waterparks, is the biggest sector of the economy. Sandusky is also the local center for health care, retail, and services. There is still a commercial fishery in this part of the lake, but it’s declining due to environmental damage. The town, which was a stop on the Underground Railroad, is still pretty liberal, more diverse than most, and quite charming. Sandusky has metro area public transit, as well as ferry connections, and service by two Amtrak lines.
o Bellefontaine (pronounced “bell fountain”; 14,000 people) is central-western. Local employment includes auto manufacturing, government, and logistics; most of the larger businesses in the county are located in other towns. There are small state and community college satellite campuses. There’s not much here, but most residents seem satisfied.
o Boardman (about 40,000 people in the “township”) and Austintown (close to 30,000 people) are suburbs of Youngstown, and Youngstown’s transit system runs bus routes to both. (Youngstown itself is not recommended because of its commonly high unemployment and stagnant economy.) Boardman is considered pleasant and peaceful. It is a local retail center and close to the tourist attraction of Mill Creek Park. Austintown is pretty white and the economy seems limited; probably many people commute. Most residents of both communities seem satisfied.
o Alliance (close to 22,000 people) is west of Youngstown. Most employment is low-paid retail, but the cost of living is low. It’s been called a college town, but really doesn’t qualify; it is home only to a very small private college and a community college satellite campus. It is the home of the Cat Fanciers’ Association and its museum, and holds an annual Carnation Festival. Alliance is served by the regional transit system and an Amtrak line.
o Chillicothe in the south (22,000 people) is a historic town with rich Native American history and a park with many Hopewell mounds. There’s an Amish community in the area. The African-American population is small but dates back to pre-Civil War days, when there was a free Black community at this stop on the Underground Railroad. Employers include a paper mill, a prison, health care, and plenty of low-paid retail. There’s a small state college, a technical school for high school students, and an audio engineering school in the area. Residents enjoy the friendly atmosphere, attractive downtown with a historic theater, parks and hiking, and events such as the county fair, storytelling festival, and Feast of the Flowering Moon (which celebrates Native American heritage).
no subject
Date: 2022-08-07 09:04 pm (UTC)My hometown (way too small to be on this list) is closest to Boardman from the options above. I have mixed feelings about Boardman and it probably probably wouldn't be my first recommendation. While there is public transportation, it's pretty limited. It's very overwhelmingly car-centered suburbia. There's a mall and then miles of 1970s shopping plazas. Sidewalks are mainly limited to the subdivisions. You are very close to Youngstown with all the negative impacts spilling over - there's a lot of regular crime plus the historical presence of mafia/organized crime. If you WERE interested in Boardman, I'd probably go a little west to Canfield or a little east to Poland and aim for the "downtown" areas.
I find the housing prices in NE Ohio, including the small towns, to be ridiculously high right now--though maybe not if you're coming from the West Coast. Might be worth waiting for the bubble to pop?
I never get a good feeling from Alliance, but that's just based on "vibes." Akron and Canton--in the same vicinity--"feel" better to me.
I've heard good things about New Philadelphia. Other places to consider: Kent (close to Akron) or Marietta, though I'm not sure how they stack up against the book criteria!
no subject
Date: 2022-08-07 09:21 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2022-08-08 02:25 am (UTC)Last time I was looking, which has been a while, housing was cheaper in much of Ohio than it is where I live. But let's face it, it's unreasonable almost everywhere.